Australia vs Japan: we can win, but will we?
After consecutive qualification to World Cups in Germany and South Africa, many Australian football fans have reached a level of comfort, even complacency, about our World Cup standings. For some, like myself, they have never experienced a Socceroos side that hasn’t competed on the biggest international stage. For others, they are quick to forget the thirty two year wait between qualification in 1974 and 2006. That being said, sitting precariously at third place in Group B, fans of the green and gold have been jolted back into a state of nerve and anxiety.
“The Never Ending Story of Australian football rages on; Holger Osieck’s managerial decisions continue to baffle Socceroos fans.”
At the end of the qualification process, the top two sides in our group will progress to the World Cup. Third place will have to compete in an extended, arduous leg of qualification that offers very little security. Currently, the Socceroos sit at third place, behind Japan and Jordan with three crucial and decisive games coming up this month. It’s not time to panic yet, but certainly the hour to stop feeling comfortable about our chances and start worrying again.
The good news is that we’ve a game in hand over Jordan, who sit only a point ahead of us. Not only that, but one of our upcoming games is against Jordan themselves. We’ve plenty of opportunity, but that’s not always proven to be enough for this Socceroos squad, led by the somewhat maligned Holger Osieck. We struggled against a relatively weak Oman side in Sydney, rescuing a late point in a game that demonstrated our lack of attacking prowess and creativity.
This month’s first crunch match, unfortunately, is against a team with bucketful’s of just that. Japan have been defeated only once in their entire qualification process, and top the group with thirteen points – in contrast to Australia’s six. A recent blooming in Japanese talent overseas has reflected, as expected, on their international makeup, with world-class players such as Manchester United’s Shinji Kagawa, Keisuke Honda, Inter Milan’s Nagamoto and other first-class players amongst their ranks.
It’s safe to say at least two things about the Japanese team; they’re bloody good and they’re bloody cocky. Their captain, Makoto Hasebe, announced in an interview a few days ago that he believed Bulgaria were a better team than the Socceroos. Japanese media make mocking and dismissive comments about our talent and squad.
It was with great pleasure that Australian fans watched Japan go on to lose 2-0 to Bulgaria, with Makoto netting an own goal in the process. I don’t believe in omens, but I’m quite happy to use them as a literary device in articles – so with that in mind, perhaps this is the good omen Australian fans needed to remind them that winning will not be impossible this Tuesday night. Japan have had a good team for quite a long time, but we’ve always given them a well-contested game and been up to the challenge.
In the twenty times Japan and Australia have clashed, both teams have won seven times and drawn six. The last of these was a memorable match just under a year ago in Brisbane, where a ten man Socceroos side battled a Japanese squad boasting Kagawa and Nagamoto in absolute prime form. Despite being a man down after an early sending off, we fought bravely to get an equaliser and for much of the second-half, had the “Samurai Blue” on their back foot.
The Japanese team isn’t all flash either. Their keeper, Eiji Kawashima has been in a recent patch of questionable form – Australia certainly has a much more talented crop of number ones. While their fullbacks are incredibly impressive, Inter Milan’s Nagamoto and Schalke’s Uchida, Japan’s centre-halves are less so. Maya Yoshida plays for Southampton, and is a solid defender but with few options to play beside him, this could be an area where the physical Tim Cahill and Josh Kennedy can exploit. Similarly, their striking options are thin with Stuttgart’s Shinji Okazaki and Vitesse’s Mike Havenaar their strongest choices.
The Never Ending Story of Australian football, however, rages on; Holger Osieck’s managerial decisions continue to baffle Socceroos fans. In selecting his defensive options for the final three qualifiers, he picked a group that “boasts” K-League benchwarmer, Robbie Cornthwaite, mediocre A-League centre-half, Jade North and Lucas Neill, who plays for as many professional football clubs as I do. Incredibly, he snubbed Trent Sainsbury – one of the A-League’s best players last season – as well as Shane Lowry who has impressed at Millwall, Middlesbrough’s Rhys Williams or Western Sydney Wanderers duo Topor Stanley and Beauchamp who conceded the least goals last A-League season.
For someone spotted so regularly at A-League games throughout the season, his selection from our domestic league leaves us all scratching our heads. The season’s top two teams, with the best defensive records in the league, have had none of their players called up to the national squad. Meanwhile, from the league he selects Thwaite, North, Milligan and Franjic. While Milligan and Franjic are justifiable, Thwaite and North will be counting their lucky chickens and checking them twice.
With very little reasoning behind his selections, it becomes a daunting feat to piece together a theoretical back four and, even more so, picturing them trying to defend against the technical, attacking prowess which the Japanese boast.
Fortunately, the rest of his selections seem fairly equitable. Our attacking lineup boasts a number of names that have Socceroos fans licking their lips. We can only hope that Holger doesn’t inexplicably substitute them off if they’re performing well, like he did Kruse against Oman.
Returning to our attacking lineup, perhaps crucially, is Josh Kennedy. The towering poacher has proven deadly against Japan in the past and has an impressive scoring record in the J-League. His massive stature and imposing physicality is very effective against significantly less physical Japanese defenders. With the host of creative players we can put behind him, he might prove to be a long-missing piece to our attacking puzzle. Alex Brosque has deputised up front in recent Socceroos appearances, proving to be less than convincing. His selection, over the likes of Leckie, while only playing in the UAE is another that has baffled Australian fans.
The two players we will be pinning most of our hopes on, however, are Tim Cahill and Robbie Kruse. Tim Cahill is an Australian football legend, has an incredible scoring record against Japan and is in a fine vein of form for the New York Red Bulls. He was also, arguably, our best player in the last Socceroos game against Oman where he scored a crucial header to get us back in the game. Robbie Kruse had a breakout season in the German Bundesliga for Fortuna Dusseldorf, and recently earned himself a transfer to heavyweights Bayer Leverkusen who finished third this season, and will be participating in the Champions League next year.
With his blistering pace, technical ability and typical Aussie determination, Robbie Kruse represents a player that the Socceroos have been sorely missing in recent years. A player who we can pass it to if we’re in need for attacking creativity, or who can dribble us out of tough positions. Australian fans will be hoping Holger pairs him with Tommy Oar on the other wing, another youngster who has impressed in Europe. Playing for FC Utrecht in the Netherlands, Oar has established himself firmly in the starting lineup and helped them achieve qualification to next year’s Europa League. The twenty one year old has also been the subject of interest from multiple large European clubs, an indication of his quality. Similarly to Kruse, Tommy boasts a remarkable burst of speed and if the Socceroos can utilise this pace on either wing we will be very capable of catching Japan, especially on the counter.
Another interesting area within the Socceroos line up is the holding midfield position. Again, we have many very solid, if not impressive options to consider. Mile Jedinak is the most obvious, having captained Crystal Palace this season all the way to the Premier League – scoring some crucial goals along the way. Although disappointing against Oman, his form for Crystal Palace is very promising. The holding midfield position will be key in restraining Japan’s strongest area, their attacking midfielders – such as Kagawa, Honda and Inui.
For that reason, it would be tempting to play either Holland or Milligan alongside Jedinak – building a wall to shield our back four and breakdown the Japanese attack. Holland has started nearly every game this season for club side, Austria Wien, who won the Austrian league convincingly. Mark Milligan was a standout player in the A-League, playing for the Melbourne Victory and demonstrating his incredible mental strength and leadership. Coupling either one of these alongside Jedinak is an attractive, though cautious, option.
Yet, it can be argued that the Australian side needs an element of creativity in our deep-lying midfield. Jedinak is not renowned for his distribution and if Holger picks a lineup that is too defensively minded we might struggle to connect defence with attack, when counter-attacking might prove crucial to our strategy. With this in mind, Bresciano and even Holman are notable options. Although Bresciano is past his prime, he has been impressive when deployed in the midfield for the green and gold recently. His tactical mind is superior to most in the Australian squad and his creativity an asset. On the other hand, Holman has been equally, if not more important for the Socceroos since the 2010 World Cup and his industry might suit well in a deep-lying midfield position.
As I have alluded to, Australia will need to play a counter-attacking game if we hope to win this Tuesday. This should be effective for two key reasons; firstly, the Japanese fullbacks are very aggressive and like to push high up the field; secondly, we have incredible outlets of pace in Kruse and Oar on either wing. With Nagamoto and Uchida joining the Japanese attack, we can catch them too high up the field and utilise Kruse and Oar to take advantage of this. Our counter-attacks can focus down the wing, with Kennedy and Cahill waiting in the centre to convert crosses into the box.
With all this in mind, my personal selection for Tuesdays match would be as follows:
Schwarzer
McGowan – Ogneovski – Milligan – Wilkshire
Jedinak – Bresciano
Kruse – Cahill – Oar
Kennedy
Our bench presents us with some enticing attacking options, such as Tom Rogic, Brett Holman and Archie Thompson – all of whom can change the game in the second half if need be. Our back four sticks out, in quite an ugly manner, from this line-up and would look all the better if it featured Lowry and/or Sainsbury. Unfortunately, it’s more likely to feature our captain, Lucas Neill, who is a free-agent after a less than impressive cameo for Sydney FC last A-League season.
This Tuesday’s game against Japan isn’t conclusively “must-win”, but a point or three would be invaluable. There is no doubt that we can beat a cocky Japanese side, but our players will have to play at their best, play as if they’re wearing the famous green and gold. In the meantime, we can only hope that Holger makes the blatantly obvious decisions.
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Watch the Socceroos on SBS: http://www.sbs.com.au/guide/day/2013-06-04/location/NSW#/program/5408483
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