Derby glory hangs in the balance

The Sydney Derby is yet to develop a slogan. There is so much potential. I’m surprised that we are yet to see “the match which divides the harbour city” or “east verses west to see who is best”. I’m a particular fan of that last line because it rhymes, and who doesn’t like some casual rhyming?

The derby is still fresh, only in its second season, yet is already starting to develop some notable traits.

The Wanderers have taken the fixture’s crown and wear it proudly on their figurative heads, having not lost a derby since the beginning of their run in 2012; this season they convincingly dispatched of the Sky Blues in their “noisy neighbours’” own backyard and backed this up with another derby victory in Parramatta after a late Santalab winner. Could this be the first ever Derby whitewash?

The odd thing about this Saturday’s match is that each set of teams could quite easily develop a strong argument about why they should lose.

The Wanderers have hit a form slump, falling twice in one week, to Ulsan Hyundai and the Newcastle Jets, despite fielding relatively full strength squads in each fixture. Meanwhile, they will be missing key defender Matthew Spiranovic due to suspension as well as potentially missing Tomi Juric through injury.

On the other hand, Sydney FC have had a typically up and down (with more downs) season and are coming off a 2-1 defeat to a Mariner’s squad that hadn’t tasted victory for a long time. Their defence remains suspect as ever (as exposed twice by the Mariners counter-attack), while critics still point to an over reliance on Del Piero going forward.

Similarly, both sides could also develop reasonable arguments about why their opposition should win this Saturday.

Sydney FC, despite suffering defeat against the Mariners, dominated the game and played some relatively decent football. Del Piero worked well with the returning Terry Antonis, while Despotovic has been a revelation up front.

In the words of Frank Farina, ‘‘When Liam Reddy gets three points [man of the match], I suppose that says a bit.’’

The Wanderers, despite their recent slump, are still occupying second place. Star players such as Shinji Ono, Jerome Polenz and Youssouf Hersi should all be fit. The team has experience in winning these clashes and will be more than fired up.

In the words of Tony Popovic, “We’ve been on a good run, four games we were undefeated before Newcastle and we won our last game in Perth which was very good.”

I suppose this can always be said, but I hope my italics will emphasise the fact that both teams need to win.

The Wanderers will have all but given up on the Premiership, but a win would keep them in the hunt and maintain second place against the challenging Adelaide United. A win for Sydney FC would bring them well into top four contention, and go a long way into securing their position in the finals.

It’s going to be an interesting affair, with no-one quite sure what to expect. Sydney FC fans will feel close to finally tasting derby victory in their home stadium (and in this post 2012 rapture world), whilst Wanderers fans will relish the opportunity to reignite their season by humiliating their cross-town rivals.

The previous two derbies this year have told different stories. While neither have been dominated in possession by either team (53% for each home team in both fixtures), the round three clash was thoroughly dominated by the Western Sydney side who tore Sydney’s defence apart in the opening half before comfortably sitting on their lead.

The second clash, however, was more indicative of a Wanderers squad on the decline. A weak-on-paper Sydney FC side battled nobly with their rivals, and almost salvaged a point, if not more, but for an 88th minute strike from Brendon Santalab. It was the sort of three points that the Wanderers fans are used to, but a relatively feeble performance compared to that of round three.

Since then, the Wanderers’ form has been akin to a Brazilian backpacker – all over the place. They’ve won games, more unconvincingly than not, been defeated soundly by the likes of Wellington, Melbourne and Newcastle yet have somehow managed to hold on to second place, despite some relatively uninspired performances. It’s been a long season, almost as long as that previous sentence (almost).

Sydney FC haven’t been much better (they’ve been worse). The sixth place side have suffered humiliating defeat after humiliating defeat, only to put on remarkably decent performances such as their victory against Melbourne. Its hard to tell when they will have a defence more leaky than Frank Farina’s jacket after an involuntary beer shower, or when Del Piero will run an unstoppable show. Though depression is a familiar state among Sky Blue fans, the hope of another 5-0 performance will give them a tempting glimmer of hope coming into any fixture.

The Wanderers will be favourites, but hardly due to recent form. They’ve had only one win in their last five games, against now bottom place Perth Glory – in a performance that was clinical, but hardly worthy of turning one’s head. Comparatively, Sydney FC have won two of their last five (two of their last three). This is a huge opportunity for the Sky Blues to take home a memorable three points.

One of the key match-ups will likely be Topor Stanley vs Despotovic. Although usually a wall in the Wanderers’ back four, Topor-Stanley has had a shocking week where he has been exposed by two physical strikers in Ulsan’s Shinwook and Newcastle’s Heskey. Even against the less than imposing Adam Taggart, the towering centre-back failed to muscle his striker off the ball.

Without physicality as a crutch, Topor Stanley has been exposed for the weaker sides of his defensive game and culpable for just about every goal the team has conceded in the last week.

Fortunately for the Sky Blues, they possess a striker who will pose the perfect threat; Ranko Despotovic. The tall Serbian has been one of Sydney’s best players since signing partway through the season, scoring six goals in just fifteen appearances. He uses his body intelligently, while employing sharp, deadly finishing to make full use of the space he creates.

With Spiranovic out suspended (although he’d likely not play anyway due to national team duties), Popovic’s options are thin. There is every chance that we might see a centre-back pairing of Heffernan and Beauchamp, although employing two new centrebacks is a risky idea.

Interestingly, another weakness for the Wanderers squad, who are renowned for their defensive ability, is the left back position. Adam D’Apuzzo has been less than impressive this season. Heffernan has played in that position numerous times and if not employed at centre-half, might see a start at fullback. There is plenty for Sydney FC to aim at in the Wanderers back four.

Sydney FC boast an arguably more fragile back four which has a tendency to collapse under any organised offensive. However, if Juric does not recover from injury, the Wanderers lack a physical attacking option who can take the game to their opponents. Juric’s absence was particularly noticeable against Ulsan and the Jets, who weren’t hassled by Santalab or Haliti’s work-rate.

The Wanderers’ long ball exit plan becomes less effective without Juric (or Dino Kresinger for that matter) to aim at, and their playing out from the back has always been somewhat suspect when they can’t catch their opposition on the counter. It was particularly bad against Ulsan and Newcastle. They have only ever lost three of the thirteen times Juric has played.

The Wanderers will take heart, however, in the Mariner’s victory last week, where Sydney FC dominated proceedings but were sloppy when called to defend. A Mariners side, also on a slide, were able to punish two pieces of unfortunate defending and come out with an invaluable three points. We might have to see a similar thing from the Wanderers.

Wanderers fans will be happy to see the recent return of Mateo Poljak. In the first derby of the 2013/14 season, the pairing of Poljak and La Rocca through central midfield was key to the side’s impressive performance, in both offensive and defensive phases.

However, in round fourteen’s clash Poljak was injured, forcing Popovic to pair La Rocca with Mooy. This was a less than impressive combination, with Mooy not as effective defensively as Western Sydney’s Croatian import.

Curiously, of the Wanderers’ last five games – the only time that the Western Sydney side won and the only time they kept a clean sheet happened to be the only time the Poljak – La Rocca combination was used.

With Sydney FC’s diamond midfield outnumbering and applying serious pressure on the Wanderer’s holding midfield pairing, the nounce of Poljak and La Rocca in this area could prove hugely valuable.

A big decision Popovic will have to make is whether to start Mark Bridge or not. The club’s top scorer has been in fairly uninspired form lately, unable to provide an useful outlet down the left wing. This flank, with D’Apuzzo in behind him, is a distinctively weak link.

Tahj Minniecon has been missing in action for the last two months and was registered as injured for last week’s squad, however proved earlier in the season against Melbourne that he is a very exciting option.

He offers pace and directness where Bridge fails to, which could be particularly effective against a narrow Sydney FC with inexperienced fullbacks. His availability is in question however, and the Wanderers lack other such options on the left (Kubi is primarily utilised on the right).

EDIT: Tahj Minniecon has been ruled out injured for an indefinite period, and ACL signing Gol Gol Mebrahtu has joined the A-League squad. While it is unlikely that he will start the Derby, Gol Gol is a good option for future rounds (or off the bench) down that left wing due to his pace and mobility.

The Sky Blues have welcomed back Antonis from injury, who has quickly impressed in the centre of the park. Another impressive youngster, Hagi Gligor, has improved rapidly within the first team after replacing Milos Dimitrijevic against Perth and combined well with Del Piero, Ali Abbas and Antonis against the Mariners and Jets.

In both of these fixtures, Hagi was replaced shortly after half-time by the more experienced Richard Garcia, but will be looking to solidify his starting position in the coming weeks as this central diamond continues to gel.

This 4-2-2 (4-1-2-1-2) diamond allows Sydney to more easily dominate the centre of the park, creating natural triangle/diagonal lanes whilst also outnumbering almost every other formation in midfield.

The defensive pairing of Petkovic and Ognenovski looks to have much potential. However, the fullback positions have been particularly suspect for the Sky Blues all season. Pedj Bojic and Marc Warren have both been dropped while Ryall copped a season ending injury.

Farina has opted for Jurman at left full back and eighteen year old Aaron Calver on the right; both are naturally centre-halves, thus playing out of position.

Hersi and Polenz will look to expose Jurman, with Sydney FC’s 4-4-2 diamond formation  leaving the wing susceptible to Polenz’s overlapping runs overloading the flank. In the central midfield, Ali Abbas might have to cover for this – either employed in a sweeping holding midfield position or on the left-hand side of the central diamond (as has been the case in previous weeks) where he can drift wider in the defensive phase.

Sydney’s formation, however, can work particularly well against the Wanderers’ 4-2-3-1, as going forward they can outnumber the midfield four to two; with Abbas, Gligor, Antonis and Del Piero attacking Poljak and La Rocca. Even if Gligor drops back to help Sydney play out, or if Ono tracks back for the Wanderers, the Sydney midfield will still outnumber.

This was seen against the Mariners (who are set up similarly to Western Sydney), with the Sky Blues dominating midfield. The Mariners were able to hold on by the skin of their teeth before launching late counter-attacks; in fact, Duke’s winner came after Mile Sterjovski targeted Jurman with a piercing counter before playing the ball across.

The Wanderers will have to remain intensely focused on structure, dropping back into a narrow 4-4-2 during the defensive phase, with wingers covering the outnumbered holding midfielders and fullbacks watching Jurman and Calver.

The relative lack of width of Sydney FC’s midfield places incredible emphasis on their fullbacks, to both bomb forward offensively and cover themselves in defence. The Wanderers should focus on quick counter-attacking down the wings, exposing Sydney’s narrowness and makeshift fullbacks.

There’s plenty of opportunity for either side this Saturday, and I’m sure Farina and Popovic will throw numerous spanners into the works with their squad selection and tactics. Can Sydney FC utilise their potentially overwhelming midfield advantage, learning from their mistakes against the Mariners? Or will the Wanderers hold typically strong and devastate the Sky Blues on the counter, exposing the frailties of Farina’s ambitious diamond formation?

I will leave you with one last possible marketing slogan, which I quite favour; how do you feel about “the Wog vs Poofta Grudge Match”? No? OK, well I’ll just quietly slip away now.

Follow me on Twitter (if you dare): @userlastname

Be sure to tweet me about what you think about my likely terrible analysis. Or about my love for lasagna, I don’t have enough lasagna discussions on social media.

Google+