Key tactical issues in the A-League Grand Final
The concept of a “Grand Final” is oft dismissed among modern football fans (against modern football) as a gimmick and “too Australian”. However, living in Australia, we have ahead of us this Sunday a Grand Final of epic proportions.
A sold out Suncorp Stadium, flooded with Roar fans and a substantial travelling group from Western Sydney, will host the league’s two best teams. While everyone might prefer a logical “first past the post” system, even the skeptical among us can’t help but feel excited.
Do both teams deserve to be there? Most certainly. Led by young, though incredibly talented managers in Mulvey and Popovic, both the Roar and the Wanderers are synonymous with disciplined and hugely effective adherence to their respective structures and strategies.
Brisbane play a flowing, high-tempo brand of football focused on maintaining possession of the ball, and clever movement to open up defenses. The Wanderers are fit and strictly methodical, forcing their opponents to make mistakes before rushing forward and punishing them.
It’s all rather dramatic, but what will be the likely key tactical issues decisive in this weekend’s blockbuster?
Will WSW sit deep or press high, away from home?
The Western Sydney Wanderers have drawn occasional criticism for a seeming lack of flexibility in their tactics. However, one might argue that Popovic’s unwillingness to throw a spanner in the works could quite simply be due to the fact that their system works, and works consistently.
Characterised by a relentless high press, compact structure and counter-attacking football, the Wanderers aren’t always the prettiest team to watch, but their personality is very attractive.
Pressing high involves the squad as a unit pushing forward quickly at their opposition in possession – particularly in their opposition’s half, after a turnover.
Not only does this have a significant psychological factor (rushing their opponents and leading them into making sloppy decisions) but it has a very real physical effect; creating quick turnovers in possession and forcing mistakes in their opposition’s half, which can be capitalised on.
This is the engine behind the Wanderers machine; their opposition turnover the ball and Western Sydney spring into action – usually focusing on their right wing combination of Hersi and Polenz (with Ono gliding over to support) and overloading defenders.
It’s not the overtly proactive football that purists on their couches at home deserve, but ithas been devastatingly effective for the side over the last two seasons.
However, one game stands out.
In round seven, the very two teams who are facing each other this Sunday for the Championship clashed for the first time this season – and the Brisbane Roar came out convincing victors.
This was in stark contrast to last season where the Wanderers had beaten the Roar on all four occasions.
So what had changed?
Travelling up to Brisbane to face a squad in fine form, Popovic took a more cautious approach. His focus turned to clogging up the midfield with a medium block that sat back defensively, without pressing high up the pitch.
This allowed the Roar’s defenders (Smith and North, who are good ball-players) to take their time in crafting movements forward, able to spread the ball around while waiting for channels to open or team mates to find useful positions.
The ever impeccable Broich was able to drift in from the wing and help unlock the clogged, compacted midfield.
In effect, it allowed a Brisbane side who thrive on a patient passing game of football to take their time and do just that.
This proved disastrous for the Wanderers, conceding two quick goals in the first half.
From thenceforth, the Wanderers’ tentative outlook was thrown away – reverting to their usual high press, shifting their squad further up the pitch.
This resulted almost immediately in a goal for Santalab and the Wanderers grasping dominance. They were shortly on top of Brisbane in possession and creating a large amount of chances on goal – fifteen, to be precise.
Although these chances were ultimately poorly taken, the change in tactics manifested itself unbelievably clearly on the game.
In the following two clashes between the sides this season, Popovic learnt from his mistakes. The Wanderers, spurred on by home crowds, adopted their usual high block to much effect.
They pressed incredibly high in the opening periods of each half, to disrupt the Roar’s flow – while setting up in a compact block to stifle the Roar’s midfield.
In both of these games, the Western Sydney side came out only the worse for two sloppy goals (one in each game) conceded early on. Otherwise, they have given the Roar side more problems than anyone but, inexplicably, the Newcastle Jets.
A key question in this Sunday’s Grand Final will be: does Popovic set out his side more defensively minded, like he did last they were in Suncorp, or maintain their more audacious, but effective, high press?
Can Brisbane step back into stride?
Brisbane have been, by a country mile (whatever that may be), the best team in the A-League this season. Their fluid passing game, movement off the ball and (like the Wanderers) relentless pressing has seen them win the competition by a large margin.
Their midfield stands out as undoubtedly the best in the league. Brattan has emerged from seemingly nowhere, while veterans of the game in Broich, Miller and McKay have continued to do what they do best.
Up front they have been complimented by arguably the league’s most deadly striker, Besart Berisha. Players such as Petratos, Henrique and the returning Solarzano have proven more than a handful for defences.
For all the talk of the Wanderer’s defensive ability, Brisbane have conceded the least goals in the league – largely thanks to their dominance in midfield, but also thanks to the pace and ability of centre-halves, North and Smith.
They are a well-rounded, incredibly effective unit – and have been consistently throughout the season.
However, perhaps due to complacency, their run in to this final hasn’t turned so many heads – at least for the right reasons.
While their opposition, the Wanderers, are coming off the back of topping their Asian Champions League group, winning the last game of their season and cruising past the Mariners in their semi-final, Brisbane have almost drunkenly stumbled into what is being anticipated the most watched football game in Australian history.
A scrappy draw against the Wanderers, then a right thumping from the Mariners was arguably not the best way to finish the A-League season, and two weeks off didn’t seem to help things along either.
This inspired “pundits” such as Ross Aloisi, of all people, to predict that Brisbane wouldn’t even make it past their semi-final.
Their performance against the Victory was cagey and somewhat uninspiring. Their passing game was not as fluid as fans have come to expect, their pressing missing a certain cutting edge and although they emerged victorious, the result could’ve quite easily gone the other way.
As the ever-objective Herald Sun put it: “A-League chiefs admit Melbourne Victory was robbed…”
But such is the manner of champions, they find a way to win. Brisbane Roar are certainly champions, but will they be Champions?
The Roar will have to reach out and find their stride for this Sunday’s clash against the Wanderers.
A massive home crowd and the charm of the “toilet seat” should be enough to lure the absolute best out of them, but anything less will not go unpunished – so you’d imagine.
Will WSW try and play out from the back (and which striker will start)?
A clear distinction between the Western Sydney of old (last season, that is) and the Western Sydney of 2013/14 has been their new found focus, at least dabble, with playing out from the back.
Going forward, last season was characterised by quick vertical balls using the height of cult-hero Dino Kresinger as a target, with Ono thriving on the space just off him. This resulted in blunt counter-attacking football with little messing about in their own half.
This season, Topor-Stanley and Spiranovic have attempted to tone down this directness (directivity?) somewhat and begin attacking phases with short balls in towards the midfield, rather than bypassing the area.
This tactic hasn’t been entirely convincing for the Western Sydney side, although a valuable learning experience.
Against Brisbane, however, it could prove very risky. Brisbane too execute a high press, spear-headed by the ever-persistent Besart Berisha (who finds unholy determination for big occasions). If the Wanderers’ centre-halves are to hold the ball in defence, they are inviting this pressure – and there are certainly questions over whether they can withstand it.
Choice of striker from Popovic could prove pivotal. Santalab was very impressive against the Mariners, pressing effectively and moving intelligently to open up space between the lines. However, his small stature is unsuited to playing as a target man for more direct football.
Juric, on the otherhand, is quite the opposite. His huge physical nature and talent at holding up the ball while playing intelligent passes makes him perfectly suited to such a role.
Tomi’s pressing, though, isn’t quite as effective as the nimble Santalab and his fitness questionable throughout the season.
Will Popovic bench his man in form, or his top goal scorer? Many have suggested that Juric might make an appearance as a super-sub, but bringing on Santalab late in the game to hassle a tiring Brisbane side could arguably be even more effective.
It has been hard to predict Popovic’s decisions regarding choice of striker this season, but his selection for this Sunday’s Grand Final could prove critical.
Who will line up for both teams?
Mike Mulvey’s lineups have been relatively consistent throughout the season, injuries and suspensions aside. Conversely, Popovic has enjoyed keeping pundits, and likely his own players, guessing.
The Roar’s midfield of Brattan, McKay and Miller – with Broich supporting – is the core of their set up and will likely remain unchanged. Their back line is equally consistent, although the injury of Petratos could force Mulvey to mix things up.
There is the possibility that Franjic might be pushed up into that right wing position, where he played earlier in the season, with Hingert or Brown dropping into fullback. Alternatively, Henrique or Solarzano might step into their natural roles on the wing.
Petratos has been declared fit and this mightn’t be a problem in the end. However, whether he starts after a stunted week of training is questionable.
Predicted Brisbane Roar lineup:
The Wanderers have their own injured winger in Mark Bridge. Reports as of yesterday suggested that he hasn’t made the squad, after looking in lots of trouble after coming off against the Mariners.
Reports today, however, seem to indicate that like Petratos, Bridge is training well and seems to have shrugged off his ailments.
I don’t expect him to start and have caught word that Cole is going to start in his position (at least as of yesterday). This makes very much sense for multiple reasons. Although Cole is primarily a fullback, he has strong attacking qualities and a work ethic that will be crucial in pressing the Roar and dealing with them defensively.
There has been much discussion regarding the optimal midfield pairing for the Wanderers, with Poljak, La Rocca and Mooy fighting for their role. Last week, Popovic started La Rocca and Poljak, who performed quite effectively. I don’t expect this to change, especially with La Rocca’s physical presence in the midfield which should help disrupt the Roar.
As discussed earlier, it is difficult to predict whether Juric or Santalab will start. In the following lineup, I select Juric mainly because I believe he is the optimal choice – but we will have to see what decision Popovic makes, something he has done effectively throughout the season.
Predicted Western Sydney Wanderers lineup:
Who will break first?
Ultimately, this weekend’s Grand Final could come down to the most simple of factors: who will make the first mistake?
Brisbane will be looking to break-down a Wanderers defence often compared to a brick wall – but will the Western Sydney side hold up against the onslaught?
The Wanderers, on the other hand, will be waiting and pressing for Brisbane to slip up in possession before punishing them on the counter-attack. Will Brisbane make this potentially fatal mistake?
One moment could change everything, throw the game on its head, rip the heart out of every fan in the stadium; such is the beauty of football.
Follow me on Twitter: @userlastname
Google+
