FTS Preview – Australia vs. Japan
From the very moment in 2006 where Australian striker Tim Cahill netted two goals in five minutes into the back of Japanese keeper Kawaguchi’s net, it was obvious that for years to come, Asian-confederation giants Japan and Australia would have a long-standing rivalry both on the continental and world stage. And while Tuesday night’s fixture at Nagai Stadium in Osaka’s heart, won’t take place during any World Cup or Asian Cup qualification and can only be classified an International Friendly. The result of this rivalry-fuelled fixture will most-certainly be a catalyst for the Asian Cup for whichever team can come out on top.
In contrast with Australia, Japan have too dropped multiple places in the FIFA rankings after a nightmare World Cup campaign. Following their early knockout in the group stages of the competition, the JFA decided to remove Italian coach Alberto Zaccheroni, who had little prior-experience in Japanese football at all, with Mexican Javier Aguirre, who also shared similar qualities.
Japan then played out a 2-0 loss to Uruguay and a 2-2 draw with Venezuela on home soil, before coach Aguirre decided to arrange a very different squad to take on Jamaica in the nation’s Niigata, and Brazil in South East Asia’s Singapore. Kobayashi, Ota, Shiotani and Taguchi were fresh-faces included into the squads that beat Jamaica 1-0 and lost to Brazil 4-0. The starting squad in the match against Brazil saw nine players fielded who weren’t even included in the Samurai Blue’s squad for the World Cup. The most notable exclusions for the Japan side in the Brazil match were Makoto Hasebe, Maya Yoshida, Shinji Kagawa, Yuya Osako, Yasuhito Endo and Shinji Kagawa.
Although following the Neymar rampage in which Japan suffered heavily from in Singapore, Aguirre decided to wind the clock back and in his absence, field a team to play Honduras at Nagoya highly similar to the team that took on the World in July. Tipped as favourites but only by a few goals, Japan exceeded the expectations of many and went on to maul the South American side 6-0 with goals to; Keisuke Honda, Maya Yoshida, Yasuhito Endo, Yohei Toyoda and two goals to Asian-Cup bolter Takashi Inui, who was only on his second appearance of the year for Japan after not being included in the World Cup squad.
Considering Friday’s clash saw six goals scored by five different players, Aguirre will have some trouble picking his frontline for Tuesday’s match as along with the five goalscorers, striker Yoshinori Muto and midfielder Shinji Kagawa practically remained silent for the match, but still share a chance of inclusion to the squad. The likely XI for Japan when they take on Australia should be quite similar to Friday’s, it doesn’t seem Aguirre is ready to start switching up the midfield yet considering he will have just returned from his absence to Mexico, however it is likely Takashi Inui may take the starting position of either FC Tokyo youngster Yoshinori Muto or Yasuhito Endo, the defence should remain unchanged while Okazaki plays the lone striker role ahead of the five-man midfield.
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For Australia, a similar performance to Japan in July’s World Cup came with a different outcome as the green-and-gold have since dropped twice on the FIFA rankings and now find themselves in a controversial 94th place. Their fixtures post-World Cup began with a half-decent 2-0 loss to Belgium in enemy territory and a slight improvement in their offensive play following a 3-2 victory over Saudi Arabia in London.
However, last month’s friendlies in the Middle East against Asian Cup-bound Qatar and UAE have been much less than promising. Australia held together to a 0-0 draw against the UAE on October 10, which can be considered a defensive improvement in the team as it was the first clean sheet under Ange Postecoglou this year, and it came after previous friendlies where the back four in the team had undergone many changes. Most notably Nikolai Topor-Stanley, Chris Herd and Bailey Wright’s inclusions and exclusions to the squads in different games.
The following game against future World Cup hosts Qatar, showed there may be some trouble at the back and front of the Australian squad, after Qatari Captain Khalfan Ibrahim found himself in a one-on-one position with Club Brugge keeper Maty Ryan in the 61st minute.
Although Maty Ryan will look to get the nod ahead of Mitch Langerak for Tuesday’s fixture, after Langerak conceeded two goals and a yellow card against Saudi Arabia in his most recent fixture for the green-and-gold.
Nikolai Topor-Stanley will look to start in the center back position for Australia on Tuesday following the Western Sydney Wanderers’ win over Al-Hilal FC earlier this month, his only contention being Trent Sainsbury and Alex Wilkinson, one of whom will receive the other center-back position. Although it’s most likely Trent Sainsbury could get the position, after Alex Wilkinson’s performance against Qatar in the 1-0 loss where Sainsbury was an unused substitute. Ivan Franjic should play right back despite his injury that has stunted his playing time over in Russia. While Jason Davidson should easily take the position at left back, his only competitor for the spot being Aziz Behich, who is currently succeeding at top-flight football in Turkey, but was part of the poor performance against Qatar.
Upfront, it is still unsure whether or not Tim Cahill will play, but the man himself remains confident. In the meantime, it’s likely Robbie Kruse, Matthew Leckie or James Troisi will play upfront in the attacking-midfielder role and one will take the lone-striker role if Cahill is unavailable, which would push Mark Bresciano into the spare attacking-midfielder role. This is the assumed formation following the Qatar game where we saw a 4-2-3-1 lineup.
In the midfield, Mile Jedinak will most likely assume his normal role in the command room with the blue armband, where he will most likely partner with Bresciano. Or Bresciano may be pushed forward into a more attacking-midfielder role if it is Ange’s preference or need-be, in that case, it wouldn’t be an issue finding a partner for Jedinak as there is a large amount of midfielders available. Mark Milligan hasn’t been included in the squad, so it’s likely we could see either Massimo Luongo or James Holland take the partnership role. Some possible late bolters for the midfield roles include Mitch Nichols and Aaron Mooy.
While there is a lot on the line for Australia with form, important results and the upcoming Asian Cup on homesoil that has been deemed by some as a ‘must-win’. I believe the odds are quite in favour of the Samurai Blue when you also consider they are known for having a strong home-game advantage and this sellout fixture of Nagai Stadium is no different. Japan seem to finally have found a spark in a similar squad to the World Cup in July, it should also be noted Australia have a few injuries to battle with. Things could be a totally different story in January for Australia and there will be a lot more factors in their favour. But for now, it looks like Ange has still got some rebuilding to do following Australia’s recent friendlies.
Prediction
Japan 2-1.
The game will be telecast on ABC (Yes, ABC) from 9:00pm Tuesday night
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