Absorbing OFC into AFC is beneficial for all
The idea of New Zealand joining the Asian Confederation and following Australia is certainly not new. In fact, as soon as Australia left, the idea was floated as the Oceania Confederation started to make the All Whites look like a dominant force. They top opposition we face here is New Caledonia, Tahiti and the Solomon Islands.
It’s too easy for the All Whites to march through to the final stage of World Cup Qualifying where their entire four-year cycle boils down to 180 minutes, which happened to be against Mexico. Had they drawn Jordan, they may have had a better chance, but unfortunately, there’s now very little hope of them reaching Brazil.
From New Zealand’s point-of-view, doing just as Australia did would be ideal. And you can’t say we are any less Asian than Australia, that just doesn’t wash. It might suit us, both it leaves OFC in ruins, they couldn’t be financially sustainable. Plus there’s no reason for Asia to accept New Zealand, as it doesn’t offer anything other than more competition.
Another solution is absorbing OFC into the AFC, which again would be a terrible move for AFC because it would be a huge financial burden and they again have no reason to do so. Or maybe they do have.
With Oceania’s half of a World Cup Spot, Asia could pick up five guaranteed positions. It would mean that there would be no Mexico’s or Uruguay’s to worry about. It would mean Jordan would be going to Brazil, provided they had seen off the extra competition from the pacific. But it’s still not very attractive to Asia, because they financial burden and extra travel would be immense, and it would be the lower Asian nations shouldering it.
A solution can be found however, in absorbing the Oceanic qualification process with the Asian one. In return for making up five guaranteed spots, AFC would accept the two finalists from the OFC Nations Cup into the third round of qualifying. One place would not be enough; while it makes sense for NZ it doesn’t make sense for OFC. But with two, however unlikely, the New Caledonians of this world may feel the have a better chance of eventually reaching the World Cup (it would boost their development process, even if that would end up maxing out well before they are World Cup quality).
Sure it may mean two Asian sides won’t make it to the third round, but it won’t be teams that had any hope anyway. It might be a financial loss for those two nations, but overall AFC would put themselves in a position to gain.
To do this, the OFC Nations Cup, would need to be brought forward a year to the year following the World Cup, eg 2011, 2015, 2019, to correlate with the Asian Cup and Copa America. The two finalists would enter the draw of twenty Asian teams in five pools of four, in 2011/12 this is where Australia had Oman, Saudi Arabia and Thailand. From there on, it would be exactly the same process. Other than the playoff for the 5th spot which would had previously lead to another playoff, the winner would now march straight to the World Cup.
The Asians where quick to moan when they felt NZ “fluked” it’s way past Bahrain in 2009, so it would eliminate any chance of that. If they were so confident they deserved that spot, here is a scenario where they will get it, if they do indeed deserve it.
For New Zealand, it would give a qualification process of 19 meaning-full matches (5 at OFC Nations Cup, 6 AFC Third Round, 8 AFC Fourth Round), plus two more if they got into the 5th place play-off. Surely in the long run, this experience would place them as regulars from Qatar onwards, even if they don’t make Russia. They have the resources to place themselves ahead of the Jordan’s, Oman’s and Bahrain’s. Plus a Oceanic nation would get 6 games of a quality they can only dream off, even if there’s no chance of them getting through.
OFC could remain completely separate, the point where confederations come together in qualifying would just be much earlier than in previous years. It might be more of a hassle, but it’s certainly a fairer system.
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