The Nix Fix: Are the playoffs a possibility?
Ernie Merrick may have given up on the chances of the Phoenix playing finals football this season but I have not. At least for one more week anyway.
Following last weekends disastrous 5-0 thrashing in Newcastle, Merrick has stated that he now believes the Phoenix have no chance of making the A-League playoffs. Based on that performance it would be hard to argue with him. However with three rounds remaining the Nix find themselves just four points outside the top six. A sizeable, but not impossible gap to close.
There’s no doubt that if they are going to even remotely have a chance at qualifying they’ll need to win all three matches. That is an absolute truth. The good news is that on their day the Nix are capable of pushing any team in the league to their limits, as has been seen in some of the outstanding results they’ve registered this season.
With that in mind let’s go over the final three regular season games and assess our chances of playing finals footy.
Round 25: Adelaide United (Home)
The Phoenix return to Westpac Stadium for the first time in three weeks where they’ll take on Adelaide, a side they’ve had mixed results against so far this season. In round 17 the Nix hosted Adelaide at Auckland’s Eden Park and came away victorious 2-1 but more recently in round 21 they were hammered 5-1 by the Reds at Coopers Stadium. The Phoenix will welcome back Ben Sigmund into the defence which will help to close up the gaps that were evident in last weeks Newcastle nightmare, and Carlos Hernandez returns to give some spark to the attack. I rate this game as the least difficult of the final three matches and I think the Nix are a good chance of picking up all three points.
Winning Chance: 65%
Round 26: Sydney FC (Away)
This match shapes up as the most difficult of the final three rounds. Sydney are a team that currently sits just outside the top 6 on goal difference and will be desperate to win this encounter and prevent the Nix from taking their potential playoff spot. Working in favour of the Nix is the fact that Sydney have only won 2 out of their last 6 home matches and the last time the two sides played it was the Nix who came out on top 1-0.
Winning Chance: 30%
Round 27: Melbourne Victory (Home)
If the Nix make it to the final round with a chance of a playoffs spot on the line, I’m glad it will be played at home. Melbourne Victory shape as one of the biggest threats to Brisbane for the title this year and they will be a tough team to beat just one week short of the finals. However this will be the same Victory side that the Nix smashed 5-0 the last time the two sides played in Wellington back in round 15 and if they can reproduce that magic again then anything is possible.
Winning Chance: 50%
Of course the major problem with all these predictions is you just never know which Phoenix side is going to turn up on game day. Will it be the side that thrashed last years champions 4-1 on their home ground, beat the Wanderers 3-1 in front of the RBB and destroyed Melbourne 5-0 at Westpac? Or will it be the side that collapsed to a 5-0 home loss to the Heart, got thumped 5-1 in Adelaide and just last week was humiliated 5-0 by the Jets?
Where there is a chance, there is hope. Let’s get behind the boys and get decent crowds in for the final two home matches and hopefully see the Nix sneak their way into the playoffs.
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