The curious case of Youssouf Hersi

The Wanderer’s loss to the Central Coast Mariners in last Sunday’s Grand Final cemented firmly into place what has become a truly remarkable statistic. The Western Sydney side, in their debut season, have never won a match where their star winger, Youssouf Hersi, has failed to appear.

30 year old Youssouf Hersi was signed at the start of the season from Dutch Eredevisie side De Graafschap, having previously starred for the likes of AEK Athens, FC Twente and Ajax. Throughout his career, the speedy flanker has been marred by an unfortunate series of injuries, but after a slow start to his career in Australia, Hersi has become a rejuvenated player, integral to his club’s success.

However, while injury hasn’t been too much of a problem this season, what can be described, perhaps, as “overenthusiasm” has been. Hersi picked up ten yellow cards and two red cards across his twenty three appearances this year, which have rendered him suspended and unavailable for multiple fixtures. Curiously, throughout the regular season, in all of these fixtures the Wanderers failed to win a single game – which is why so many fans were devastated when the Dutch-Ethiopian picked up a red card in their victorious semi-final against Brisbane.

When it happened, many dismissed the Hersi curse and noted that he was having a poor game against Brisbane in the first place. However, the statistics speak for themselves.

In Round 4, the Wanderers picked up their first ever victory, against the Brisbane Roar. They followed it up with another three points against the Melbourne Heart and, after a close defeat to Newcastle in Round 6, a victory against Perth. Following a poor start to the season, the A-League’s newest club were in a remarkable patch of form. However, in that very match against Perth, Youssouf Hersi picked up his first red card of the season. A straight red which would have him miss the next two fixtures – the first two games he would miss all season.

Of course, the next round they were dispatched convincingly at home 2-0 by the Melbourne Victory and then shocked by Wellington the week after.  It appeared that the Wanderer’s purple patch was well over – until Hersi returned. The next three games marked an incredible turn-around; the Wanderers winning 1-0 against Brisbane, 2-0 in the Sydney Derby away from home and 6-1 against Adelaide.

The next week, requiring a long trip cross country to play Perth, Hersi was left out of the squad. And of course, the Wanderers failed to win despite coming off a six goal demolition of Adelaide. He returned against the Victory and the Wanderers, naturally, won 2-1. Albeit, in this game he picked up a yellow card that would have him suspended against the Central Coast Mariners the following week; of course, the Wanderers would lose that at home 2-0.

Hersi played the next ten games for the Wanderers without exception, and remarkably the Western Sydney side emerged victorious from all ten fixtures. Though, another yellow in the final of those ten matches had him suspended against Sydney FC the next week. They drew. He returned the next week against Newcastle, they won the premiership; then the semi-final against Brisbane.

So is it any surprise that, with Hersi suspended for the Grand Final, the Wanderers lost?

If that story I’ve painted doesn’t clarify my point well enough, maybe this incredible statistic will: the Western Sydney Wanderers have won the last seventeen games that Hersi has played in. They have won every game he has scored in. They have never won when he hasn’t featured. The curious case of Youssouf Hersi.

So what is it about the versatile winger that makes him so integral to the Wanderer’s success? I spoke to Tim Palmer (@timhpal), author for football analysis website the Leopold Method and his own blog, Australia Scout, about Hersi’s role in the Western Sydney side’s game-plan:

Hersi’s importance to the Wanderers is twofold – firstly, in attack, he is the key man in their counter-attacking game, always available wide on the right as soon as the ball is won. You only have to watch a few minutes to see how the Wanderers defenders instinctively glance to the right when they have the ball, searching for the Dutch winger.

 

When Hersi wins the ball, he typically dribbles directly towards the channels, which is where his relationship with Jerome Polenz is so crucial. With his overlapping runs down the flank, the German provides the width that would otherwise be absent. With Shinji Ono and Mark Bridge, who moves high up the pitch as a second striker, in support, Hersi always has options available.

 

Sometimes, the roles are reversed, with Bridge carrying the ball out of defence and Hersi coming narrow into the penalty box – his poacher instincts provided seven goals in a season where Popovic’s strikers failed to fire.

 

Hersi’s other critical contribution comes in defence. The rise of the 4-2-3-1 formation has seen the demand for wingers that can track back and form a second bank of four grow exponentially. There is probably no harder-working winger in the league than Hersi, whose sheer energy and desire to run for the team is infectious. He bursts forward to put defenders under immense pressure, and if they manage to pass it around him, he immediately tracks back to protect Polenz.

 

He is no great defender, by any means – you only have to look at his poor disciplinary record as evidence of that. But you can’t fault his work-rate, which combined with his creativity makes him the pivotal member of Popovic’s starting XI.

When Hersi has been unavailable for selection, Popovic has had no options that provide the same class and ability of his Flying Dutchman. Appiah-Kubi appears to be the likely candidate, but at only 20 years of age is yet to reach the game-changing heights that Hersi has. Though he has pace and burning desire, the youngster has lacked in final technique and execution throughout the season – unable to provide a goal or assist for the club. In fact, in all four starts Kubi has made this season, the Wanderers have not won.

In the Grand-Final Appiah-Kubi played what was perhaps his best game all season, combining his pace with skill and beating players to create opportunities. Knowing the boots he was filling, Kubi looked the most positive of any Wanderers player.  As Rose began to push higher up the field, the youngster was forced to play a more defensive role and eventually faded out of the game – but he showed that in years to come, he could be a dangerous option for the Wanderers under Popovic’s wise guidance.

Another option Popovic has, when Hersi’s unavailable, is Labinot Haliti. Haliti is an industrious player, perhaps better suited centrally, but has the ability to be effective running up and down the Wanderer’s flank. Having appeared 17 times all season, Haliti scored five goals and is best remembered for his premiership winning goal against the Mariners in Gosford. In eight starts for the team, the Albanian born Aussie, has been part of five victories; scoring four goals.

The statistics certainly highlight Haliti as a worthwhile replacement for Hersi on the wing, but the decisive factor which they bring to the team is much different in each case. As previously mentioned, Haliti is not the quickest nor most creative player. He doesn’t have Hersi’s ability to skip past defenders and relieve pressure. Nor is he as good at getting the ball and using his flare to dribble into central channels, activating Polenz’s overlapping runs. Instead, he works hard, gets into good attacking positions and looks to finish calmly. He is not a direct replacement for Hersi, albeit a useful counterpart.

It would seem that in the off-season, Popovic will be looking to make signings to help cover in this area. This year he has shown a lot of faith in Appiah-Kubi, but it is obvious that to unleash his full potential, the youngster will need at least another season’s development. It is easy to argue that the “Hersi curse” is nothing more than coincidence, but the statistics could not make it any clearer – when Hersi doesn’t come to play, neither do the Wanderers. If the Western Sydney side are to better their first dance with the A-League next season, this crucial flaw in their setup must be addressed.

Follow me on Twitter: @userlastname

Follow Tim Palmer on Twitter: @timhpal

Photos thanks to: @efcso

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